Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #tradewar

Most recents (24)

Thread: The Bank of #China is asking customers with #US dollars to exchange them for the local RMB currency, and giving rewards to those that do. This is an indication that the trade balance is getting tight due to the #tradewar and China needs to raise more foreign currency.
Here is further confirmation that #China is short of dollars - Why is #US dollar access so restrained in China as trade war rages on? Foreign financial institutions increasingly reluctant to lend US dollars to Chinese banks because of financial risks amp.scmp.com/economy/china-…
Foreign financial institutions increasingly reluctant to lend US dollars to Chinese banks given worries about financial risks amid the trade war - China holding onto US dollars by increasingly restricting business and individual transfers out of the country.
Read 13 tweets
#FoxBusinessNews is discussing #TradeWar with #Mexico Trump is quite wily. Some car parts travel back & forth over the border FOUR times, same parts. The assembly apparently requires the parts exchange hands several times before the final assembly.
2/ A 5% tarriff for each trip over the border will bankrupt a Mexican company. DJT probably knows the cumulative tariff for Mexico will be 25% in the end. Each piece is now increased $2.50. Which is why their representatives ended their siestas & made tracks to reach the White
3/ House. The US auto industry has been alluding to “peak car.” It seems taking Uber, Lyft, & others is less costly than owning car. More used cars are being bought & the electric car is permanent. The auto industry is headed into the graveyard. Perhaps as soon as 2030.
Read 5 tweets
#China’s Communist Party has been engaged in an economic campaign of “Unrestricted Warfare” against the Free World since it joined to @WTO in 2001. But they have a weakness in their non-free floating currency, the #yuan. W/ all due respect to @POTUS @realDonaldTrump, his…
… pressure on the @FederalReserve to keep interest rates low is misguided (& reminiscent of @RTErdogan’s disastrous mistake in #Turkey). If we want to fight #China as hard as they’ve been fighting us, we should encourage Fed Governors to *raise* interest rates and *contract*…
… the global monetary base. This contraction will expose structural economic problems in #HongKong & in mainland #China more broadly, including insolvent state-owned enterprises, an over-extension of corporate credit, under-capitalized Chinese banks, etc. Moreover, the…
Read 4 tweets
🔴 Exclusive: Google suspends some business with Huawei after Trump blacklist - source. #TradeWars

Reuters reports that Google is suspending some business with the Chinese manufacturer

<POTENTIALLY DESTABILIZING FOR #Huawei's PHONES TRADE, IF ACCURATE>

reuters.com/article/us-hua…
If report is accurate, Huawei could be restricted to using the Android Open Source Project (ASOP), losing access to [Android] updates, which would cut the company off from critical Google apps that consumers outside of China expect on Android devices.
Rumors say that Huawei was already preparing its own operating systems in the event of being banned from using Android and Windows, but given US fears about foreign interference, a home-grown OS is likely to face even more scrutiny than Google’s software❗️
Read 21 tweets
Some argue that the #US economy could decouple from the steepening downturn in the global #economy . This is a serious misconception.

The fact is that, for the first time since the early 1900s, the US has not been the most influential player in the global business cycle. 1/
When the global financial crash reverberated through the global economy in late 2008, the Chinese leaders enacted stimulus that would break all records.

The idea, most likely, was to carry the Chinese economy through the slump of the global economy, but the slump never ended. 2/
The bank bailouts of 2008 combined with zero-interest and quantitative easing policies by the central banks forced the business cycle into expansion mode prematurely. Unprofitable banks and firms were kept operating, and the global economy “zombified”. 3/
gnseconomics.com/en_US/2019/03/…
Read 11 tweets
美國銀行(Bank of America Corp.)、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)和瑞銀集團(UBS Group AG)表示,在 #TradeWar 繼續深化的情況下,中國的經濟增長可能會放緩至6%以下,這是近30年來的首次。中國實際的經濟環境可能要比數據嚴重得多。
隨着政府通過增加支出來緩解衝擊,債務螺旋上升,目前已經接近GDP產出的300%。麥格理證券(Macquarie Securities Ltd.)駐港首席中國經濟學家胡舒立(Larry Hu)說:“他們必須知道,日本之所以陷入“失去的十年”,部分原因是日本央行在廣場協議之後過度刺激了日本經濟。”
Read 12 tweets
#Gold: There is an interesting story on Bloomberg suggesting that China could dump Treasuries, not as part of the #TradeWar but to defend its currency.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…?
#Gold: Certainly, the RMB has quickly fallen in value against the USD and Euro over the past month, as this chart of a 50:50 USDCNY EURCNY blend shows.
Gold: Together with the move in US dollar-denominated #gold back towards $1300/oz, this has propelled #gold in renminbi towards a recent high.
Read 10 tweets
FRIDAY MORNING IN ENERGY: And I’d like to talk energy, but really, I’ve got to talk trade first after we’ve got new tariffs coming, a lot of research notes, and very nervous markets… #OOTT #tradewar #China #trade
… as always you can follow our coverage here on Reuters.com. Our lead story right now is, the US escalated the trade war with more tariffs after the Chinese made major changes in the agreement that blew everything up earlier in the week.

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Trump has said he’s in no rush to complete the deal. So we’ve got that going for us. #trade #china Ttradewar

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
Read 26 tweets
𝗧𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱 | 𝗗𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹𝗱 𝗝. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽: 💰𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗗𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗿

#BillionDollarLoser #TrumpTaxes #TrumpIsAFraud #Trump #TheResistance #BiggestLoserTrump #ImpeachTrump #QAnon #MAGA #WWG1WGA
Decade in the Red | Trump Tax Figures Show Over $1B in Business Losses: May 7, 2019

nyti.ms/2H7zUYT via @nytimes
#BillionDollarLoser #TrumpTaxes #TrumpIsAFraud #Trump #TheResistance #BiggestLoserTrump #ImpeachTrump #QAnon #MAGA #WWG1WGA
Read 27 tweets
Economists estimate trump's #TradeWar w/ China has already cost U.S. companies & consumers $19.2 billion.

Now U.S. retailers, to avoid drastic price increases in the U.S., purchase products from Tawain, South Korea, Vietnam, & Mexico (thread)
#economics

reuters.com/article/us-usa…
The trump #TradeWar is making #Vietnam a winner-- as "exports rose 12.4% in the 2nd half of 2018...outpacing the five biggest economies in SE Asia"

And co's like Xuan Hoa Vietnam Joint Stock Co. (furniture) have shifted operations from China to Vietnam.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Tawainese companies are also moving out of China to invest in their home country, making #Tawain a winner in the #TrumpTradeWar

#economics

taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3679587
Read 11 tweets
Going after #Trump? Evidence from the #tradewar. This is a brief thread describing a new paper that it is joint work with Carlo Schwarz @Warwick_Econ PhD student (going on the market this year). The paper circulates as @cepr_org - ungated WP ssrn.com/abstract=33490…
The question we ask is quite simple: were the retaliation measures triggered by China, the #EU, and the #NAFTA against Trump's tariffs politically targeted? We study the trade escalation triggered by US steel tariffs and various #Section301 #tariffs.
Interestingly, this is the first trade dispute in a long time that actually escalated to that level. The last case that came close was also the case of steel tariffs in the early 2000s -- but then retaliation measures, while being threatened, were never triggered as US caved in.
Read 13 tweets
Over the 40 years of formal US-China relations, few companies better illuminate the complex layers of this bilateral relationship than @Boeing.

@Neilthomas123 traces the story of Boeing and China, from the Cold War to the Trade War. Follow this thread: macropolo.org/boeing-us-chin…
1/ Did you know the very first engineer @Boeing hired was Chinese?

In 1916, Chinese-born, MIT-trained Wong Tsu helped William Boeing build the Model-C.

macropolo.org/boeing-us-chin…
2/ Boeing's first sale to China came during the Cold War. When Nixon visited China in 1972, he personally approved a request from China to buy 10 B707s. The motive is more geopolitical than commercial: to weaken China's aviation dependence on Soviet planes:macropolo.org/boeing-us-chin…
Read 24 tweets
Opens a new front in the US-China #TradeWar
Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Chinese tech giant Huawei, was detained in Vancouver at the request of US authorities, say she threatens national security
The US wants to extradite Meng & a bail hearing is set for today
cnn.com/2018/12/06/bus…
Don’t use Huawei phones, say heads of FBI, CIA, and NSA
The US intelligence community is still worried about Chinese tech giants’ government ties.
Huawei, which was founded by a former engineer in China’s People’s Liberation Army.
theverge.com/2018/2/14/1701…
The Big Hack: How China Used a Tiny Chip to Infiltrate U.S. Companies & Military.
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Read 3 tweets
"Once again this week, world leaders, U.S. lawmakers and jittery investors have been reminded that Trump’s words cannot always be trusted."
#WednesdayWisdom #China #TradeWar #StockMarket
washingtonpost.com/politics/chaos…
2-"After his Argentine steak dinner last weekend with Chinese President Xi Jinping, President Trump announced that they had reached an “incredible deal” to temporarily suspend his trade war. But days later, Trump declared, “I am a Tariff man.”Trump last week proposed stripping
3-"away electric-car subsidies from General Motors as punishment for the automotive giant moving to cease production at plants in the United States and Canada. But then his chief economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, said the White House would do no such thing. Targeting a single
Read 31 tweets
#G20 中共最核心的利益,既不是貿易也不是國際地位,而是執政黨地位。任何直接或間接有可能動搖這一核心利益的條件都無法被接受,沒有任何妥協的餘地。美方想要兩樣東西:一個是開放,一個是公平。這兩項若要滿足美方的標準,短期看就是會導致中共政治控制力下降,長期看,就會影響到執政地位。
#G20 中共幾十年高度管制之下,如今的中國已經發展到任何經濟問題都有可能轉變成政治問題的地步,任何政治問題都有可能動搖執政地位。所以,中美談判,中方最希望的結果就是「大訂單模式」,每年花錢買美國貨,這樣就能夠在不觸動根本制度的前提下消除中美貿易順差。
#G20 中共希望不動制度,花錢消災。美方希望制度變革,一勞永逸。這怎麼談?要想讓習讓步幾乎不可能,他斷然不會拿自己的江山去做賭注。那麼就只有川普妥協,放棄長遠利益,先拿個大訂單再說,以後的事交給後人。如果是這個結果,那川普就真的是搬石頭砸了自己的腳了。
Read 45 tweets
Today we release our annual @wiiw_news Autumn #Forecast Report, with macroeconomic projections for #CESEE out to 2020. Below, a thread on the highlights 1/13
#Growth still looks quite good for most, notable upgrades this time for #Poland, #Serbia, #Hungary. But downgrades for several #EU members, plus #Turkey, #Macedonia and #Belarus. 2/13
Over the #forecast period we expect best growth performance in #EUCEE and #WesternBalkans, although both will slow by 2020. Outlook for #CIS & #Ukraine weaker. 3/13
Read 14 tweets
🇨🇳 #CHINA Q3 GDP Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.6%E (slowest growth since Q1 2009)
*NBS spokesman Mao Shengyong said that the international situation was bringing “downward pressure” on China.
*Link: bloom.bg/2RVX1ZA
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🇨🇳 French tire maker Michelin warned of declining sales in Europe and #China in the second half of the year, dragging down shares of its competitors in the U.S. and Europe - Bloomberg
*Statement: bit.ly/2EujhqH
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇪🇺 In a volley of filings, the EU, #China and the U.S. this week escalated disputes over new U.S. metals tariffs, the European response to those levies, and Chinese intellectual property practices - Bloomberg
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 634 tweets
#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
#Turkish Intel-Investigative Bodies also have the list of all Diplomatic & Private Saudi & “other significant’ Planes in #Turkey for the period of ‘interest.’ Many of the Target airports have their own security cameras & related evidence.
Read 335 tweets
The ghosts of 2008 are back. We had #Lehman. Today we have #ILFS and #RupeeAt75. The bulls have given up. #Sensex is down 4500 points in 25 sessions. As shared by @Prashanth_Krish over 50% of stocks traded on NSE are down 50% or more. Friday’s fall would have made it more brute.
Most of serious investors are fully invested. With the kind of sell-off witnessed in #Bajaj twins, #HDFC twins, #Reliance, #Kotak, quality midcaps/largecaps, no one is spared. Even Portfolios of respected investors like Rakesh J, @porinju, @VijayKedia1, SP Tulsian are down!!
In 2017 everyone made easy money. 2018 made you realise how difficult it is for traders and investors to make money in #stocks. I wish @adhia03 realises the gravity of his mistake by imposing #LTCG by referring stock markets as easy money making medium. #Nifty #Sensex
Read 27 tweets
美国步入衰退的可能性大增
紐約聯邦儲備委員會的衰退概率指標(Recession-probablity Indicator)——使用10年/ 3個月的國債收益率曲線來預測未來12個月收縮的可能性,最近達到2008年以來的最高點——24%。據彭博數據顯示,自20世紀60年代以來,該指標已經上升了11次,其中8次伴隨著衰退。 #Recession
美帝人民在家具和家居裝修方面的支出大幅下降
Read 18 tweets
On the topic of trade, I suspect #China is happier about Trump’s #TradeWar than many suppose. Sure, China will feel some short to mid term pain from these disruptions; however, the United States is leaving behind a very large vacuum in the international community. /1
While America is off attacking everyone coming and going, China is quietly offering to provide leadership on trade. There are many trade deals taking place where America is on the outside looking in; thus, China stands to win big in the long-term application of the trade war. /2
Trump and his supporters misunderstand something paramount about foreign policy. They see lone wolf schoolyard bullying as the ultimate exercise of foreign policy power. /3
Read 4 tweets
Donald Trump has slapped tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese goods against China's espionage. But how much has the US lost from China's intellectual property theft actually? Conservative estimate put the costs between $225 billion and $600 billion annually. #TradeWar
One of the key reasons behind US China #TradeWar is a race to win $12 trillion technology seen as a backbone to everything from driverless cars to future cities that will set the standards that will define the next generation of mobile internet - #5G. But theres another player.
During #FifaWorldCup18 in Moscow, Russians have set up #5G test zones with speeds of 100 megabits per second. Although City of London has announced plans to switch to 5G as soon as it becomes available, it is Moscow that hopes to become first 5G city by 2020. #TradeWar
Read 3 tweets
ABD'nin ozellikle son donemde S.Arabistan, #Iran uzerinden sert bir dille verdigi tum mesajlarin altinda ki asil hedefi #Çin'dir..

Daha dogrusu petro-dolar ile petro-Yuan arasinda yasanan amansiz savaş..

Bu konuyu tum ayrintilariyla irdeleyerek
🔻#FLOOD'umuza🔻 baslayalim.
1-Çin ile ABD arasında yaşanan ekonomik hegemonya savaşı, 2018 yılının başlarından itibaren yeni ve daha etkili bir evreye girdi. 2000’lerden bu yana dünya hegemonyasında ekonomik üstünlüğü ele geçirmiş olan Çin, bu hegemonyasını pekiştirecek yeni adımlar attı.

#KiminBaşarısı
2-Trump,  Mart ayının ilk günlerinde, “çok aptalca olan ticaret anlaşmaları ve politikaları nedeniyle”, ABD’nin yıllık 800 milyar$ bütçe açığı verdiğini ve buna bir son vereceğini söyledi. Ardından, çelik ithalatına %25, alüminyum ithalatına ise %10 ek gümrük vergisi getirdi..
Read 65 tweets

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