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The Weekly Recap (12.06.23 ~ 16.06.23) 🧵

Missed out anything from a week full of #Macro & #Markets? Don't worry - we got you covered.

Below we share all the updates & opinions threads from last week. Make sure to follow @prometheusmacro for much more.

#MacroMonday #market
1. We kicked off the week with our CPI Preview, highlighting the importance of keeping an eye out for the #used cars and #shelter prints.

2. This was followed by an in-depth analysis of the #fiscal impulse. Overall, our assessment suggested that government #revenues continue to paint a picture of weak private sector conditions.

Read 9 tweets
Mar. 1:
1/ #Russia Near #Fiscal #Collapse

#Putin's #Money for the #War may run out in the summer - @Forbes. A few important figures:

🔸#Russia is approaching a #Fiscal #Collapse
..continued

2/
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine .@ZelenskyyUa .@DmytroKuleba
t.me/Crimeanwind/23…
Mar. 1:
2/ #Russia Near #Fiscal #Collapse

Report by #Telegram @CrimeanWind
See for yourself:

- In 2022, #Russia's #Monthly check for the #War averaged $9.5 billion, @Forbes.

- In 2023, #Putin increased ..continued

3/
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Budget
t.me/Crimeanwind/23…
Mar. 1:
3/ #Russia Near #Fiscal #Collapse

.. increased the #Defense #Budget to about $12 billion a #Month.

The #Cost of the #War in tandem with a record drop in #Oil & #Gas #Revenues will empty the ..continued

4/
#UkraineRussiaWar #Ukraine #Money #War
t.me/Crimeanwind/23…
Read 16 tweets
🚨 Less than usual proportion of cos are beating earnings estimates. 👇

#earnings #stocks #STR #estimates
$SPY $QQQ $WMT $TSLA $GME
🚨 S&P 500 earnings growth in CQ2 2022 👇

#earnings #stocks #STR #estimates
$SPY $QQQ $WMT $TSLA $GME
🚨 S&P 500 revenue actuals vs estimates in CQ2 22 👇

#earnings #stocks #STR #estimates #revenues #results $SPY $QQQ $WMT $TSLA $GME $AMZN $META $GOOGL $AAPL
Read 4 tweets
The #JobsReport came in at 372,000 jobs gained, the #unemployment rate at 3.6%, which was coupled with #wage growth of 5.1% year-over-year: all solid numbers in a historic context.
Still, when taken in the context of much of the #economic data coming in, last week’s #employment report reemphasized two key tenets of the economy and consequently of #investment markets: 1) the U.S., and indeed the global economy, is tangibly slowing…
…and 2) we are probably past the #employment peak and will likely witness #LaborMarket slowing in the back half of the year.
Read 11 tweets
[ thread 🧵 on the NOC’s LFB account ]

In late May 2019, Belqacem Haftar visited DC in a bid to secure U.S. assistance in setting up a mechanism meant to deposit $$$ proceeds from #oil exports into a special account in lieu of sending them straight to the CBL in Tripoli.
The next year, in the summer of 2020, the US & the UN endorsed the idea of preventing oil $$$ proceeds from being funneled directly & systematically to the CBL in Tripoli.

But the rationale now promoted was not the one advocated by Haftar & his associates.
In 2020, international diplomats began suggesting the formation of a special #committee overseeing the equitable & transparent distribution of oil #revenues among the three provinces, & among essential #budget categories.

Said #committee would be above the govt & above the CBL.
Read 13 tweets
Read this book at the time of #CAMS #IPO.
A brilliant read to know about the #growth trajectory of the #company & why it's only starting.

@YMehta_ @finthusiasts @nid_rockz @manurishiguptha @MadrasMobile @MarketScientist
@AnyBodyCanFly @ipo_mantra

Thread coming.👇 Image
Foreword by- Mr. Deepak Parekh, Chairman @HomeLoansByHDFC

He writes about India's #economy post #Liberalization & how #companies that have come up have one thing in common- #knowledge.

2/n
#CAMS began as a #software development & #computer education firm, moved to share registry services handling #IPO's, later became a Registrar & Transfer Agent (#RTA). It now also handles documentation requirements in #banking, #insurance & #microfinance.

3/n
Read 25 tweets
It's finally out ! With Alex Gohin (@SmartLereco), we have a new paper in @AnnalsOf in which we measure the market and environmental impacts (noinpoint source pollutions, imported deforestation, carbon emissions) of French #pesticide policies:
jstor.org/stable/10.1560…

👇
What did we do on this paper?

First, we conducted a structural econometric estimation of the impact of output and input prices on the farmers' production decisions, including land-use decisions and pesticide applications.
What's new there?

Well, we used a detailed database from @InseeFr where all farming types (including vineyards and fruit production, which use many pesticides, but also breeding farms) are included for the whole France from 1990 to 2015.

Basically, we have all french farmers.
Read 14 tweets
#Coronavirus hysteria is prolonged by #TheLeft. Sep2019 #UN #WHO #WorldBank 'Global Preparedness Monitoring Board wrote 'A World At Risk' threat of pandemic diseases (respiratory pathogen) with
potential to kill millions
disrupt economies
destabilise national security
1▪︎ ImageImage
#TheLeft 2019 GPMB Board Members incl.
co-chair WHO, Red Cross
Wellcome Trust UK
Melinda Bill Gates Fnd. US
UNICEF

& oth disease prevention control members: CCP, Russian Fed, Rwanda, The Netherlands, Japan, India, Chile, Norway, Switz
2▪︎ ImageImage
GMPB predictive epidemic rpt modelled on Africa's 2016 Ebola, scaled up > future #pandemic by country
* vulnerability economic loss (GDP % loss)
* economic cost impact:
drop in #Tourism
no longer in #Work
decline in #Revenues
drop in #GDP

pattern '#COVID19'
3▪︎ ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
This thread is about understanding Lebanon’s #budget in few questions.
Another thread will explain #Citizen_Budget 2020.
@OpenBudgets 👇
What is the #Budget?
Article 3 of the "Public Accounting Law" defines #budget as “a legislative instrument in which national #revenues & #expenditures are estimated for the upcoming year & by which #tax collection & spending are allowed”.
State #budgets have evolved to become a tool of #foresight, #planning and #accountability based on programs and #performance assessments.
bit.ly/2JKN0LV
Read 13 tweets
Lets talk about #Oil and why the price of the #US benchmark #WTI West Texas Intermediate has turned negative FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER...
Some of you are waking up to what might read or sound like another disaster. Just when you were learning how to deal with #COVID19, you hear about a so called plunge in the #Price of #Oil. But what does it mean to have oil in negative territory & why is that the case? Lets see...
In the main we will talk a bit about simple matters of #supply & #demand while touching on the #future as far as #consumer outlooks & #perception / #confidence are concerned. I would like us to start in 2016, a quick recap...what happened to #Oil?
Read 20 tweets

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