Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #demographic

Mr. Sune H. Sorensen AKA The Librarian

The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:” bit.ly/386mb0r

In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits…

And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.

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Andrew Erickson 艾立信

@AndrewSErickson

Honored to offer #PolicyRecommendations w/ Gabe Collins @RiceUniversity @BakerInstitute—

#HoldTheLine through 2035:

A #Strategy to Offset #China’s Revisionist Actions & Sustain a Rules-Based Order in the #AsiaPacific

bit.ly/HoldTheLINE

#USA #PRC

andrewerickson.com/2020/11/hold-t…

Between now & 2035, imposing costs on strategically unacceptable PRC actions + pursuing defense diplomacy offers a sustainable path to influence PRC behavior & position #IndoAsiaPacific for continued prosperity & growth under a #RulesBased regional system.
bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…

The United States should resist yielding strategic principles & position to a People’s Republic of China (#PRC) that is facing increasing constraints on its economic potential, national power growth, & prioritization of competition over citizens’ welfare.

bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…

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@LibrariumViews

The CBO has dropped the '2020 long-term budget outlook' - It's not pretty...cbo.gov/system/files/2… #US #USeconomy #Debt #FiscalMonetaryMelt #Macro #Risk Some take aways...(1/5)

2/5 #US federal #deficits, #debt, spending & revenues...#Macro #Risk

3/5 #US looking for some revenues...#tax bracket creep...An attempt at some humour; modelling potential cuts to deficit to keep debt equal to 100% of GDP...Consequences of rising #debt & some historic context...#Deficits 2020-2030...#Macro #Risk

The #FOMC today began the process of “operationalizing” the average inflation targeting framework that Chair #Powell first laid out in his Jackson Hole, WY, Economic Policy Conference speech: including new guidance on how long #policy rates can be expected to remain near zero.

Specifically, policy #rates will remain at current levels “until #labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum #employment and #inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time.”

Still, we’re skeptical about the achievability of this #inflation goal when the #disinflationary influences of technological #innovation and the #demographic trend of #population aging arguably hold a greater impact on the rate of inflation than central bank #policy does.

.#ConsumerPriceIndex data for the month of August revealed further recovery - like a lot of #macro data in recent months: core #CPI (excluding volatile food and #energy components) came in at 0.4% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year.

Overall, we think 2020’s broadly #deflationary influences may well lead to somewhat higher rates of #inflation by mid-2021, yet importantly, we do not expect this to reach excessive levels.

Those fearing increasingly greater risks of high #inflation stemming from #crisis rescue measures are misguided, in our view, and underestimate the continued secular headwinds to excessive #price increases…

Science Policy Forum

@spf_in

📌The countdown has begun..💫We are just about to take you off on a marathon of tweets with our Hon’ble Minister @drharshvardhan as part of the track 1 #consultations of #STIP2020 🎉

#sciencepolicy #scipol #science #ScienceRising #ScienceTwitter #Science4Policy
#AdvancingSciPol

Tighten your seatbelts we are going LIVE in 3⃣,2⃣,1⃣….. Here we go!

#ChatWithDrHarshVardhan on

@mygovindia @IndiaDST@PrinSciAdvGoI @Ashutos61 @guptaakhilesh63@ChagunBasha@nimita_pandey

Good afternoon everyone! 🌞🌦️
Welcome to In Conversation with Dr. Harsh Vardhan @drharshvardhan, Hon’ble Minister of S&T @MoHFW_INDIA @moesgoi

Please post your recommendations, comments with #ChatWithDrHarshVardhan

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Richard Baldwin

@BaldwinRE

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Investing for retirement?
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You’ll want to have read this & underlying paper by Kopecky & Alan Taylor
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@RobinBHarding #pension #equitypremium #demographic #bonds

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Safe rate under water, but equity return doing OK, why?
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there is a plausible demographic channel that may be driving this trend
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\👇

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Aging households are responsible for a savings glut helped to drive down real interest rates on safe assets, but they have lower shares equity
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shifting population weight does not have the same effect on equity returns that it has been shown to have on risk free assets

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After recent declines in both headline and core #inflation, we saw today’s #CPI data stabilize somewhat with modest gains of 0.6% and 0.2% month-over-month in headline and core CPI, respectively.

We think 2020’s broadly #deflationary influences may well lead to somewhat higher rates of #inflation in 2021, but we’re likely to see year-over-year growth in core #CPI around or below the 1% level for several quarters.

As both #inflation data and #employment numbers begin the process of carving out a bottom in the coming months and slowly begin to recover, we think it will continue to be critical for the @federalreserve to focus on bolstering its lending and stabilizing initiatives.

KN Govindacharya

@KGovindacharya

My notice to @NICMeity for compliance of legal provisions in #PrivacyPolicy of @SetuAarogya . #NIC as #bodycorporate must ensure #dataprotection & strict liability. #datasecurity as per IT Act & Rules must be updated in Policy before making #AarogyaSetu mandatory 1/10 @viraggupta

In #PrivacyPolicy of @SetuAarogya as per cl. 2(a) & 2(c usage of data restricted for Government of India. However, cl 2(b) & 2(d), having no mention of GOI. Due to this lapse, if #data goes to foreign #TechGiants, it may create big risk to #nationalsecurity #RighttoLife 2/10

As per clause 3(b) of the Privacy Policy, data will be retained on #mobile device. Hence, data can also be accessed by Mobile cos. As per cl. 1(b), the @SetuAarogya will use #Bluetooth and #location data. So, such data can also be accessed by #Telecom companies. 3/10 @TRAI

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And while #coronavirus spread and #election jitters will likely hold the attention of policymakers and #markets for some time, my remarks were centered on a number of key structural influences that act as the critical backdrop to policy today and in the decades ahead.

Specifically, the #demographic trend of population aging, transformative #technological innovations and the long-term evolution of the #economy from manufacturing and goods production/consumption toward #services, all hold monumental influences for policy evolution.

We’ll engage this theme in the days to come, but to begin we’d make the point that both #economic growth and #inflation (and hence monetary policy) operate with a stronger correlation to the #demographic curve than generally assumed; and that curve is pointing to secular slowing:

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Andi Egbert

@DataANDInfo

1/
Hey folks: I wanted to share something @apmresearch just released that I’m very proud of:

Our VOTER PROFILE TOOLS, as part of our broader #RepresentingUS project. (Read: A wealth of data to understand the US electorate in interactive @tableau tools.)
apmresearchlab.org/representingus…

@APMResearch @tableau 2/
We at @apmresearch released these tools on #IowaCaucus day, but expect that they will be valuable up until the #2020election & beyond—to understand how eligible voters differ—often dramatically—from state to state & in each congressional district.

apmresearchlab.org/representingus…

@APMResearch @tableau 3/
Already I’ve read numerous #media stories about the #IowaCaucuses & #NewHampshirePrimary saying those states don’t reflect the nation’s #demographics, but the #journalists didn’t include any data as to HOW they differed and to what degree.

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With my colleagues Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven, we contend that eight major #market influences are likely to dominate the #investment environment in the year ahead and that a proper #portfolio mix is instrumental to delivering a successful outcome: bit.ly/2U4sn3J

Over the next week we’ll be looking at these eight themes in more detail, beginning with the first two today: 1) The importance of aggregate global #liquidity and 2) the yawning supply/demand imbalance in #yielding global #assets.

In our view, changes to the level of aggregate global #liquidity is one of the most dominant, yet still underappreciated, influences in contemporary #macro analysis. Central #banks allowed liquidity to contract in 2018 and early-2019 but have pivoted sharply since then.

China Finance 40 Forum (CF40)

Given the moderate #economic backdrop that we’ve outlined for 2020, can risk #assets continue to perform into next year? There are historical examples of strong back-to-back year repeat performance in #equities…

Current conditions differ from other periods, of course, but the massive #liquidity injections we’re witnessing (in the form of central bank policy, FX reserve growth and corporate share #buybacks), when combined with the low vol of #growth and inflation, suggests sustainability.

Further, there are some secular tailwinds to U.S. #growth that may help explain why its #economy has been pulling away from some of its developed market peers; with more favorable #demographic trends being a critical longer-term factor.

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@ChinaFinance40

1/6 As Powell puts in his recent speech, we are “in a world of slow global growth, low inflation, and low interest rates…" and "fac[ing] heightened risks of lengthy, difficult-to-escape periods in which our policy interest rate is pinned near zero.”

2/6 CF40 member Miao Yanliang mentioned in his book that, under a #fiscal policy framework, the #demographic change and pessimistic anticipation collectively contribute to the world characterized by LOW #inflation, LOW #growth and LOW interest rate.
mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6q8SJ9RHmrKh…

3/6 After the global financial #crisis in 2008, major developed countries faced pressure to reduce #deficits, #debt, and private sector #deleveraging. In this context, the macro-policy has shifted from the former #monetary dominance to #fiscal dominance. #macroeconomics

My colleagues and I are very pleased to be meeting with many of our institutional clients today, at the inaugural @blackrock Fixed Income Summit!

We’ll discuss how the fixed #income universe has dramatically changed in recent years, where we think it’s heading in the years to come, and how best to structure more #resilient-portfolios for the period ahead; some thoughts, in preview:

Due to the #demographic revolution underway across the globe, as well as massive growth in pension, insurance and central bank assets, there is roughly 3X as much capital that needs to be #invested today as was the case in the early-2000s.

Haddy 2.0

@haddymo

With the resurgence of the mad boys and girls in red berets and red overalls it looks like all the inroads we had made upto now towards a #TwoPartyState is starting to be eroded.
#SADecides2019

The Radicals in @EFFSouthAfrica and the Nationalists in @VFPlus (both with 68 seats) gained much ground here plus the accumulated votes of the Mickey Mouse Parties (18 seats) didn't do any good to the beloved @Our_DA losing in total 88 seats combined.
SAD 😔!

Also exposed was the fact that we are not as such an equal society as we thought we are
The @IECSouthAfrica #ElectionNight Map shows how divided our society still is with @Our_DA more prevalent in colored communities as whilst @MYANC strong as expected in predominantly BlackAreas

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And just as monetary policy in the U.S. considers the weakest links in the global economic chain, we expect the #ECB to stay on a path of easy policy as they set out to accommodate the weakest links in the #Eurozone.

Hence, we like owning #assets with a low, or declining, cost-of-capital (r), as per the Gordon Growth Model, which given the posture of global central #banks, is the case in much of the world today…

…relative to a stable #growth trajectory (g), such as in the U.S. and in some emerging #markets.

wiiw

@wiiw_news

#Panel discussion on "What is the new normal for #CESEE?"
@wiiw_news #wiiwSpringSeminar

Vizek: "Very strong public sector, lot of informal economy. Croatia experienced slow growth before, so new normal not really new. But political willingness to reform very low."

Zubovic: positive trends in #Serbia: - rapid #growth in #IT sector over last 3/4 years w/ 3% to 6% share of GDP - Huge Chinese #investments, but with #externalities - Macroeconomic #stability, no fiscal #deficit anymore - foreign #debt declining - Substantial growth of #GDP

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The demand for high-quality, income-generating assets has never been greater, especially as the world faces an aging #demographic that is approaching #retirement.

Yet, supply is failing to keep up with demand - outside of the U.S., developed #market fixed #income issuance is still nearly non-existent.

And within the U.S., corporate bond issuance is flirting with decade lows....

Murtuza Haryanawalla

@murtuzaharyana

Generation Z will outnumber Millennials by 2019 weforum.org/agenda/2018/08… via @wef

As per the report "#India's Gen Z population rise to 472 million next year, 51 percent more than #China’s projected 312 million"

"Key differentiating factor between #GenZ versus #millenials is an element of self-awareness versus self-centeredness"
GenZ naturally seek their own solutions and can quickly detect whether or not something is relevant to them. #selfaware, #selfreliant #innovative